Federico Maggio
Address: Piazza Scaravilli, 2
Department of Economics
University of Bologna
40126 Bologna
Italy
Email: federico.maggio3@unibo.it
Follow @FedericoMaggio_
I am a Postodoctoral Researcher at the Economics Department of the University of Bologna. I received the PhD in Economics from the Free University of Bolzano-Bozen.
During my PhD, I visited the HEC - University of Lausanne.
My research interests lie at the intersection between labor and development economics, with a particular focus on the determinants of migration, and the economic, and demographic impact of crime and violence.
Please find my CV.
Publications
The Impact of Police Violence on Migration: Evidence from Venezuela
This study unveils the causal effect of authoritative violence
on individuals' likelihood to migrate. Specifically, we examine
the migration patterns of Venezuelans during the 2017-2018
political and economic crisis. We draw insights from regional-level
data on civilian casualties caused by security forces,
along with information extracted from the ENCOVI-2018
survey data that captures migration flows. The estimates
rely on the travel time from the capital city as an
instrumental variable and are robust to the inclusion
of several households and socio-economic regional-level characteristics.
The findings strongly suggest that authoritative violence is a
significant non-economic push factor for international migration.
Moreover, additional evidence indicates that this type of violence
influences the skill composition of migrants, especially in
the context of South-to-South migration flows.
The Impact of Police Violence on Migration: Evidence from Venezuela
This study unveils the causal effect of authoritative violence on individuals' likelihood to migrate. Specifically, we examine the migration patterns of Venezuelans during the 2017-2018 political and economic crisis. We draw insights from regional-level data on civilian casualties caused by security forces, along with information extracted from the ENCOVI-2018 survey data that captures migration flows. The estimates rely on the travel time from the capital city as an instrumental variable and are robust to the inclusion of several households and socio-economic regional-level characteristics. The findings strongly suggest that authoritative violence is a significant non-economic push factor for international migration. Moreover, additional evidence indicates that this type of violence influences the skill composition of migrants, especially in the context of South-to-South migration flows.
(with Carlo Caporali) - Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 37, 24 (2024), https://doi.org/10.1007/s00148-024-00997-x - [wp]
Working Papers
There Will Be Blood: The Impact of Drug Traffic on Violence
This paper examines the relationship between illicit drug markets
and violence in producing countries by focusing on the
case of Colombia and the impact of coca production along
trafficking routes. By using data on coca crops and crime
incidents, and constructing a predicted network of
coca-trafficking routes, we aim to identify the causal
impact of local exposure to drug markets on homicide rates.
Our identification strategy leverages the quasi-experimental
setting provided by the unanticipated announcement by the
Colombian government in 2014 of a crop-substitution program (PNIS)
which led to a sizeable increase in coca production.
The results highlight a significant and positive association
between the amount of coca trafficked through a municipality
and the homicide rate. These findings underscore the importance
of understanding the spillover effects of drug production and
criminal networks, emphasizing the need for comprehensive
policy interventions.
There Will Be Blood: The Impact of Drug Traffic on Violence
This paper examines the relationship between illicit drug markets and violence in producing countries by focusing on the case of Colombia and the impact of coca production along trafficking routes. By using data on coca crops and crime incidents, and constructing a predicted network of coca-trafficking routes, we aim to identify the causal impact of local exposure to drug markets on homicide rates. Our identification strategy leverages the quasi-experimental setting provided by the unanticipated announcement by the Colombian government in 2014 of a crop-substitution program (PNIS) which led to a sizeable increase in coca production. The results highlight a significant and positive association between the amount of coca trafficked through a municipality and the homicide rate. These findings underscore the importance of understanding the spillover effects of drug production and criminal networks, emphasizing the need for comprehensive policy interventions.
(with Francesco Campo) - [wp]
Fleeing a Failing State: Self-Selection, Earnings, and Migration Policies
I examine whether potential migrants respond to economic incentives
even in a situation where their own country is undergoing a serious
crisis and most destination countries are similarly fragile countries.
Specifically, I analyze the exodus of Venezuelans to Colombia, Peru,
Chile, and the United States over the 2015-2021 period, relying on
individual-level data representative of the Venezuelan population
and similar data on Venezuelan migrants residing in the four main
destination countries. I find that the wage differential is a robust
determinant of Venezuelan migration choice. The discrete choice model
reveals that controlling for the wage migration premium, migration
costs depend greatly on individual and destination country-specific
characteristics. Particularly, women and college graduates face
lower migration costs. Moreover, distance to the destination country
and pre-crisis network play a key role in migration choice.
Finally, my estimates show that the visa requirement imposed by
the Peruvian government led to a decrease in the educational level
of migrants, suggesting that restrictive migration policies among
fragile Southern countries may lead to negative unintended consequences.
Fleeing a Failing State: Self-Selection, Earnings, and Migration Policies
I examine whether potential migrants respond to economic incentives even in a situation where their own country is undergoing a serious crisis and most destination countries are similarly fragile countries. Specifically, I analyze the exodus of Venezuelans to Colombia, Peru, Chile, and the United States over the 2015-2021 period, relying on individual-level data representative of the Venezuelan population and similar data on Venezuelan migrants residing in the four main destination countries. I find that the wage differential is a robust determinant of Venezuelan migration choice. The discrete choice model reveals that controlling for the wage migration premium, migration costs depend greatly on individual and destination country-specific characteristics. Particularly, women and college graduates face lower migration costs. Moreover, distance to the destination country and pre-crisis network play a key role in migration choice. Finally, my estimates show that the visa requirement imposed by the Peruvian government led to a decrease in the educational level of migrants, suggesting that restrictive migration policies among fragile Southern countries may lead to negative unintended consequences.
Revise and Resubmit at World Development - [wp]
Work in Progress
The Democracy Dividend: Unraveling the Impact of Early Exposure on Health
(with Dominic Rohner and Alessandro Saia)
What do you want to become? Career Outlooks and School Performance. Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment
(with Pia Schilling) - [AEA Registry]
Teaching
Free University of Bozen, Italy
- Fall 2022: (TA) Labor Economics (Bachelor)
Lecturer: Steven Stillman
Lecturer: Steven Stillman