Federico Maggio
Address: Piazza Scaravilli, 2
Department of Economics
University of Bologna
40126 Bologna
Italy
Email: federico.maggio3@unibo.it
About
I am a Postdoctoral Researcher at the Economics Department of the University of Bologna.
I received my Ph.D. in Economics from the Free University of Bozen in January 2024.
My research interests are in Development Economics, Political Economy, and Labor Economics.
Please find my CV.
Upcoming presentations
27-28 March 2025 @ Bolzano - Applied Microeconomics Workshop
Publications
Fleeing a Failing State: Self-Selection, Earnings, and Migration Costs
Three-quarters of the global migrant population have fled fragile contexts,
with 64 percent hosted by similarly vulnerable countries.
These contexts account for about 75 percent of those living
in extreme poverty. Despite the scale of this phenomenon,
the extent to which the self-selection of South-South migrants
differs from those migrating to more developed countries remains
poorly understood. In this paper, I investigate the self-selection
of Venezuelan migrants during the 2015-2021 crisis, which led to
greater migration to less developed countries such as Colombia and Peru,
compared to more developed ones like the United States and Chile.
Using individual-level data representative of the Venezuelan
population and similar data on Venezuelan migrants in these
key destination countries, the study finds that migrants are
generally positively selected in terms of education compared
to those who remain in Venezuela, with migrants to developed
countries being positively sorted with respect to those to
developing countries. However, comparing the cumulative distribution
functions of pre-migration predicted earnings reveals that migrants
to developing countries are negatively selected relative to stayers,
while migrants to developed countries are positively selected.
This highlights the significant role of unobserved abilities
in shaping South-South migration patterns. Furthermore, a
discrete choice model shows that women and college graduates
face lower migration costs, independent of expected earnings
at the destination. Factors such as the distance to the destination
country and pre-crisis networks also play a crucial role in shaping migration decisions.
Fleeing a Failing State: Self-Selection, Earnings, and Migration Costs
Three-quarters of the global migrant population have fled fragile contexts, with 64 percent hosted by similarly vulnerable countries. These contexts account for about 75 percent of those living in extreme poverty. Despite the scale of this phenomenon, the extent to which the self-selection of South-South migrants differs from those migrating to more developed countries remains poorly understood. In this paper, I investigate the self-selection of Venezuelan migrants during the 2015-2021 crisis, which led to greater migration to less developed countries such as Colombia and Peru, compared to more developed ones like the United States and Chile. Using individual-level data representative of the Venezuelan population and similar data on Venezuelan migrants in these key destination countries, the study finds that migrants are generally positively selected in terms of education compared to those who remain in Venezuela, with migrants to developed countries being positively sorted with respect to those to developing countries. However, comparing the cumulative distribution functions of pre-migration predicted earnings reveals that migrants to developing countries are negatively selected relative to stayers, while migrants to developed countries are positively selected. This highlights the significant role of unobserved abilities in shaping South-South migration patterns. Furthermore, a discrete choice model shows that women and college graduates face lower migration costs, independent of expected earnings at the destination. Factors such as the distance to the destination country and pre-crisis networks also play a crucial role in shaping migration decisions.
World Development, Vol. 183 (2024)
The Impact of Police Violence on Migration: Evidence from Venezuela (with C. Caporali)
This study unveils the causal effect of authoritative violence
on individuals' likelihood to migrate. Specifically, we examine
the migration patterns of Venezuelans during the 2017-2018
political and economic crisis. We draw insights from regional-level
data on civilian casualties caused by security forces,
along with information extracted from the ENCOVI-2018
survey data that captures migration flows. The estimates
rely on the travel time from the capital city as an
instrumental variable and are robust to the inclusion
of several households and socio-economic regional-level characteristics.
The findings strongly suggest that authoritative violence is a
significant non-economic push factor for international migration.
Moreover, additional evidence indicates that this type of violence
influences the skill composition of migrants, especially in
the context of South-to-South migration flows.
The Impact of Police Violence on Migration: Evidence from Venezuela (with C. Caporali)
This study unveils the causal effect of authoritative violence on individuals' likelihood to migrate. Specifically, we examine the migration patterns of Venezuelans during the 2017-2018 political and economic crisis. We draw insights from regional-level data on civilian casualties caused by security forces, along with information extracted from the ENCOVI-2018 survey data that captures migration flows. The estimates rely on the travel time from the capital city as an instrumental variable and are robust to the inclusion of several households and socio-economic regional-level characteristics. The findings strongly suggest that authoritative violence is a significant non-economic push factor for international migration. Moreover, additional evidence indicates that this type of violence influences the skill composition of migrants, especially in the context of South-to-South migration flows.
Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 37, 24 (2024)
Ongoing Research
The Democracy Dividend: How Early Exposure to Democracy Shapes Health (with D. Rohner and A. Saia)
The variation in life-expectancy and health outcomes across countries and cohorts is striking.
While medical progress and climatic factors have received much attention, there is only
relatively little we know about the health impact of exposure to institutional environments over
the life cycle. The present study investigates how exogenous variation in cumulative childhood
exposure to democracy shapes adult health outcomes. It is found that growing up in bad
regimes lastingly damages lifetime health, even when living as adult in a more favorable institutional
environment. The key channels of transmission include income effects, and a series of
policy recommendations are formulated.
The Democracy Dividend: How Early Exposure to Democracy Shapes Health (with D. Rohner and A. Saia)
The variation in life-expectancy and health outcomes across countries and cohorts is striking. While medical progress and climatic factors have received much attention, there is only relatively little we know about the health impact of exposure to institutional environments over the life cycle. The present study investigates how exogenous variation in cumulative childhood exposure to democracy shapes adult health outcomes. It is found that growing up in bad regimes lastingly damages lifetime health, even when living as adult in a more favorable institutional environment. The key channels of transmission include income effects, and a series of policy recommendations are formulated.
WP Series: CEPR, CESifo
Media Coverage: Euronews, Outreach, Dirilispostasi, ILKE TV
There Will Be Blood: The Impact of Drug Traffic on Violence and Economic Well-being (with F. Campo)
This paper examines the relationship between illicit drug markets
and violence in producing countries by focusing on the
case of Colombia and the impact of coca production along
trafficking routes. By using data on coca crops and crime
incidents, and constructing a predicted network of
coca-trafficking routes, we aim to identify the causal
impact of local exposure to drug markets on homicide rates.
Our identification strategy leverages the quasi-experimental
setting provided by the unanticipated announcement by the
Colombian government in 2014 of a crop-substitution program (PNIS)
which led to a sizeable increase in coca production.
The results highlight a significant and positive association
between the amount of coca trafficked through a municipality
and the homicide rate. These findings underscore the importance
of understanding the spillover effects of drug production and
criminal networks, emphasizing the need for comprehensive
policy interventions.
There Will Be Blood: The Impact of Drug Traffic on Violence and Economic Well-being (with F. Campo)
This paper examines the relationship between illicit drug markets and violence in producing countries by focusing on the case of Colombia and the impact of coca production along trafficking routes. By using data on coca crops and crime incidents, and constructing a predicted network of coca-trafficking routes, we aim to identify the causal impact of local exposure to drug markets on homicide rates. Our identification strategy leverages the quasi-experimental setting provided by the unanticipated announcement by the Colombian government in 2014 of a crop-substitution program (PNIS) which led to a sizeable increase in coca production. The results highlight a significant and positive association between the amount of coca trafficked through a municipality and the homicide rate. These findings underscore the importance of understanding the spillover effects of drug production and criminal networks, emphasizing the need for comprehensive policy interventions.
Supranation Building (with G. Barone, M. Cervellati, T. Nannicini and M. G. Onorato)
We examine how narratives about the legitimacy of a
supranational political system — the European Union — affect
electoral participation. During a nonpartisan get-out-the-vote
campaign for the 2024 European elections in Italy,
programmatic ads were randomly deployed in small municipalities
to test two competing narratives: one emphasizing external threats
and another highlighting common challenges.
The common challenges narrative increased turnout by 4 percent,
heightened the salience of global issues, strengthened beliefs
in the need for greater EU integration, and reduced trust in existing institutions.
In contrast, the external threats narrative had no turnout effect and
elicited negative emotions, such as anger and fear.
These findings underscore the importance of positive,
constructive narratives in fostering support for supranational governance.
Supranation Building (with G. Barone, M. Cervellati, T. Nannicini and M. G. Onorato)
We examine how narratives about the legitimacy of a supranational political system — the European Union — affect electoral participation. During a nonpartisan get-out-the-vote campaign for the 2024 European elections in Italy, programmatic ads were randomly deployed in small municipalities to test two competing narratives: one emphasizing external threats and another highlighting common challenges. The common challenges narrative increased turnout by 4 percent, heightened the salience of global issues, strengthened beliefs in the need for greater EU integration, and reduced trust in existing institutions. In contrast, the external threats narrative had no turnout effect and elicited negative emotions, such as anger and fear. These findings underscore the importance of positive, constructive narratives in fostering support for supranational governance.
RCT Registry: AEA
What do you want to become? Career Outlooks and School Performance. Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment (with P. Schilling)
We study a high school workshop that helps students to visualize potential futures of their educational choices. We experimentally evaluate the program's effectiveness on performance and future orientation and psychological and personal outcomes at six German-speaking schools in Northern Italy across 122 classes. While the workshop decreased students perceived stress levels, we do not find any effect on their performance, knowledge of what to do after school or other personal outcomes.
What do you want to become? Career Outlooks and School Performance. Evidence from a Randomized Field Experiment (with P. Schilling)
We study a high school workshop that helps students to visualize potential futures of their educational choices. We experimentally evaluate the program's effectiveness on performance and future orientation and psychological and personal outcomes at six German-speaking schools in Northern Italy across 122 classes. While the workshop decreased students perceived stress levels, we do not find any effect on their performance, knowledge of what to do after school or other personal outcomes.
RCT Registry: AEA
Teaching
Free University of Bozen, Italy
- Fall 2022: (TA) Labor Economics (Bachelor)
Lecturer: S. Stillman
HEC Lausanne, University of Lausanne, Switzerland
- Fall 2022: External Expert (M.Sc. Defense)